KBRA Releases Research – CMBS Loan Refinancing 2.0 in Rising Interest Rate Environment


NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–KBRA publishes research on maturing conduit loans. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time in three years and indicating that six more rate hikes are coming this year, the KBRA wanted to better understand the prospects for refinancing conduit loans maturing through 2023.

In the base case of our analysis, about 60% of these maturing mortgages can be successfully refinanced with a first mortgage without the need for additional financing or equity. In the report, we also build sensitivities around different cap rates and loan-to-value scenarios.

Guarantee for maturing loans totals $55.6 billion (2,426 loans), of which retail (38.8%) and offices (25.3%) are the most exposed. In the base case, retail reached a refinance rate of 51.7% compared to office at 66.7%. The most distressed property type is accommodations (13.5% of the mature population) with a refinance rate of 21.7%, reflecting the impact of the pandemic on accommodation performance. The report also provides base case refinance rates for six other property types as well as various refinance scenarios for the top five property types.

Click on here to view the report.

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About KBRA

KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered in the US, EU and UK, and is appointed to provide structured finance ratings in Canada. KBRA’s ratings can be used by investors for regulatory capital purposes in several jurisdictions.


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